{"id":402,"date":"2020-10-07T21:46:30","date_gmt":"2020-10-07T21:46:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enlightadvisors.com\/blog\/?p=402"},"modified":"2020-10-07T21:46:30","modified_gmt":"2020-10-07T21:46:30","slug":"weve-never-had-a-crystal-ball","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enlightadvisors.com\/blog\/2020\/10\/07\/weve-never-had-a-crystal-ball\/","title":{"rendered":"We&#8217;ve never had a crystal ball"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.enlightadvisors.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-416 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/enlightadvisors.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/ShoesandArrows-UncertaintyBlogWeb-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"Shoes with arrows pointing in different locations\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" srcset=\"https:\/\/enlightadvisors.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/ShoesandArrows-UncertaintyBlogWeb-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/enlightadvisors.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/ShoesandArrows-UncertaintyBlogWeb-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/enlightadvisors.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/ShoesandArrows-UncertaintyBlogWeb-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/enlightadvisors.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/ShoesandArrows-UncertaintyBlogWeb-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I hear lots of noise about planning in times of uncertainty&#8230; <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">My first question is:\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>When were things ever certain?<span style=\"color: #363636; font-size: 1.45em;\">\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The moment we convince ourselves that our business, our industry, our life are static and certain, we\u2019re toast. \u00a0 Static plans designed for a dynamic world are bound to crash and burn.\u00a0 And, while current times seem especially dynamic, the truth is: the world is dynamic.\u00a0 Always has been.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>The real challenge isn\u2019t planning for uncertainty, it\u2019s planning for reality.<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One gift of the pandemic is that it has disabused us of the notion of certainty.\u00a0 Uncertainty is now explicit&#8230;in our plans, in our business, heck in pretty much all parts of life.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">You may be hearing:\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cWe can\u2019t fill that position&#8230;there may be no job in six months.\u201d<\/span><\/i><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote><p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cWe can\u2019t budget&#8230;we don\u2019t know what next year will be like.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote><p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cWe can\u2019t launch new products&#8230;we don\u2019t know if people will buy them.\u201d<\/span><\/i><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Here\u2019s the truth:\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>WE\u2019VE NEVER BEEN CERTAIN OF THE FUTURE.<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Seriously.\u00a0 Never.\u00a0 But we went around making job offers, approving budgets and launching products anyway.\u00a0 I guess we were ignorant about the inherent uncertainty.\u00a0 And, our ignorance was bliss.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>So, how DO you plan for reality?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: bold; color: #9ead4d;\">\n<h5><b>Start with Strategy.\u00a0 <\/b><\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Boil it down to its purest form.\u00a0 How can you deliver what your customers value in a way that is financially sustainable for your business?\u00a0 Write it down and make sure your teams are aligned.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: bold; color: #9ead4d;\">\n<h5><b>Rightsize the Timeframe.<\/b><\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Plan for a time period where you can see the horizon.\u00a0 Depending on the situation, you may be looking quarterly, monthly, weekly &#8211; or even according to certain milestones &#8211; COVID opening phases, for example &#8211; that don\u2019t match a calendar.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: bold; color: #9ead4d;\">\n<h5><b>Craft an Operating Plan.<\/b><\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Translate your strategy into specific actions over your rightsized timeframe. The plan should be simple, consider current events and include all departments\/operating units.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ol>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Set Priorities: the smaller the planning horizon, the smaller the number of priorities&#8230;and no matter what, there should be no more than five<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Agree on realistic goals for each priority<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Identify the key levers for each priority and agree who is accountable for each lever\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Align department action plans with the priorities, goals and timelines<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Develop an \u2018actionable budget\u2019 for each time horizon that reflects the priorities and supports day-to-day spending decisions<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol start=\"4\">\n<li style=\"font-weight: bold; color: #9ead4d;\">\n<h5><b>Put the Plan in a Larger Context.<\/b><\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Planning for shortened time horizons doesn\u2019t mean ignoring long-term implications.\u00a0 Whatever your planning horizon, zoom out and consider longer-term scenarios if things continue, get better, or get worse.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none; color: black;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400; color: black;\">Isolate the two or three factors that most influence which scenario is likely to unfold<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; color: #000000;\">Determine what &#8211; if anything &#8211; you can do to increase the likelihood that things improve &#8211; or at least continue as-is<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; color: #000000;\">Identify \u201cno regrets\u201d actions you can take to make the business stronger regardless of which scenario unfolds<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; color: #000000;\">Consider proactive measures that will reduce risk<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400; color: #000000;\">Develop a \u2018directional budget\u2019 that covers the next 12 months and includes the impacts of the possible scenarios; the directional budget provides visibility to longer-term financial opportunities and challenges to consider while planning and executing the actionable budget<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol start=\"5\">\n<li style=\"font-weight: bold; color: #9ead4d;\">\n<h5><b>Monitor, Monitor, Monitor&#8230;and Adjust.<\/b><\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">With shortened time horizons, plans need frequent review.\u00a0 And because businesses may be struggling, these reviews should be robust.\u00a0 Identify the most important metrics &#8211; cash balances, unit sales, inventory, etc. &#8211; and monitor them relentlessly.\u00a0 Be prepared to act quickly based on both positive and negative variances.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol start=\"6\">\n<li style=\"font-weight: bold; color: #9ead4d;\">\n<h5><b>Remember that Cash is King&#8230;or Queen.<\/b><\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cash management is different from typical financial management, and in times of uncertainty, cash becomes more important. Do you have it, how do you generate it, and how can you protect it? \u00a0 Cash is especially important if accounts receivable stretch past 90 days, you carry inventory or if margins are slim.\u00a0 Ideally, create cash reserves to cover: operations (6+ months), facility repairs and maintenance (6-12 months), capital projects (1-3 years) and growth opportunities.\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It takes time and discipline to build up reserves, but it will pay huge dividends in the long run &#8211; both financially and emotionally.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Uncertainty isn\u2019t new.\u00a0 Startups and small businesses navigate uncertainty day-in, day-out.\u00a0 Think about how much more flexible, adaptable and successful we\u2019d be by permanently adjusting strategic and financial planning to better reflect reality &#8211; our inherently uncertain reality.\u00a0 <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Companies that don\u2019t consistently learn and adapt eventually disappear.\u00a0 Don\u2019t be intimidated by uncertainty, embrace it.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"mailto:info@enlightadvisors.com\">Contact <em>enlight<\/em><\/a> to discuss how small changes can make your business more successful regardless of which future scenario unfolds.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"hs_cos_wrapper_module_158929713598714\" class=\"hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_module\" data-hs-cos-general-type=\"widget\" data-hs-cos-type=\"module\">\n<div id=\"hs_cos_wrapper_module_158929713598714_\" class=\"hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_widget hs_cos_wrapper_type_rich_text\" data-hs-cos-general-type=\"widget\" data-hs-cos-type=\"rich_text\">\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Uncertainty isn\u2019t new, but now we&#8217;re navigating it day-in, day-out.  How can you and your business pivot to permanently adapt strategic and financial planning to better reflect an explicitly uncertain reality?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":416,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[6,13,16,21],"class_list":["post-402","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","tag-business-model","tag-execution","tag-financial-analysis","tag-leadership"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enlightadvisors.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/402","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enlightadvisors.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enlightadvisors.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enlightadvisors.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enlightadvisors.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=402"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/enlightadvisors.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/402\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":419,"href":"https:\/\/enlightadvisors.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/402\/revisions\/419"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enlightadvisors.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/416"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enlightadvisors.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=402"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enlightadvisors.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=402"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enlightadvisors.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=402"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}